The rise of the AfD in Germany: a new political identity?

Germany is facing a political shift that could reshape its political landscape and challenge its role in the European Union. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was founded in 2013 as a eurosceptic and anti-immigration movement, has been gaining ground not only in east Germany, where it has become the second-largest party, but also in west Germany, where it has surpassed the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD) in some regions.

The AfD's rise has been fuelled by several factors, such as the dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties, especially Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its coalition partner, the SPD; the influx of refugees and migrants since 2015, which has sparked fears of cultural and social change; the economic and social disparities between east and west Germany, which have persisted despite three decades of reunification; and the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exposed the weaknesses of the health system and the government's response.

The AfD has positioned itself as an anti-establishment and populist force that appeals to voters who feel left behind, ignored or betrayed by the traditional parties. It has also adopted a nationalist and anti-Islam rhetoric that resonates with some segments of society who feel threatened by globalisation and multiculturalism. The AfD has also exploited the public discontent with the EU's policies and institutions, especially on migration and fiscal matters.

The AfD's success has posed a serious challenge to the established parties, which have struggled to find a way to deal with it. Some have tried to ignore or isolate it, hoping that it would fade away or implode due to its internal divisions. Others have tried to engage or cooperate with it, hoping to moderate its positions or influence its agenda. However, none of these strategies have proven effective so far, as the AfD has managed to maintain or increase its support base.

The AfD's impact on German politics is likely to increase in the near future, as the country prepares for a federal election in September 2021, which will mark the end of Merkel's 16-year tenure as chancellor. The AfD is expected to win around 10% of the vote, according to recent polls, which would make it the third-largest party in the Bundestag. The AfD could also play a kingmaker role in some state governments, where it could form coalitions with other parties or support minority governments.

The AfD's rise could also have implications for Germany's role in Europe and beyond. The AfD is opposed to further European integration and advocates for a more assertive and independent foreign policy that prioritises Germany's national interests. The AfD is also critical of NATO and supports closer ties with Russia. The AfD could therefore undermine Germany's commitment to the EU and its transatlantic alliance, as well as its leadership on issues such as climate change, human rights and democracy.

The AfD's emergence as a major political force in Germany reflects a deeper transformation of German society and identity that is still unfolding. The AfD represents a new political identity that challenges the consensus-based and centrist model that has dominated German politics since World War II. The AfD also represents a new cultural identity that questions the values and norms that have shaped Germany's post-war identity as a liberal and tolerant nation. The AfD's rise therefore poses a fundamental question: what kind of Germany do Germans want?

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